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There will be plenty of talk over the next two weeks about the similarities between Super Bowls XLVI and XLII. And sure, there are a slew of returnees from the classic: Eli Manning, Tom Brady, Justin Tuck, Wes Welker, Osi Umenyiora, Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichick to name a few.

But the dynamic of this game is going to be much different. Four years ago, the Patriots went to Arizona as undefeated, double-digit favorites. This time around, it’s not simply “easy to argue” that the Giants are the better team. It seems like the factually correct thing to say, despite the fact that New England opened as a three-point favorite in most places. And it’s not just because the Giants went into Foxboro and won back in November.

Big Blue has caught fire at just the right time. They’ve been in do-or-die mode since Week 17 of the regular season, when they dispatched of Dallas for the NFC East crown. Since then, they’ve hammered the Falcons at home, blasted the defending champion Packers in Green Bay and outlasted the Niners and the NFL’s best defense in San Francisco.

Eli Manning is right on par with Tom Brady in the quarterback matchup. Manning has the big-game postseason résumé to match Brady, and he’s playing some of the best football of his career right now. The biggest mismatch of the game will be Manning’s receivers—Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham—against the Patriots’ patchwork secondary. While trotting out a secondary that includes converted WR Julian Edelman and practice squad veterans Sterling Moore and James Ihedigbo makes for an interesting talking point, their play was so poor in the AFC title game that it nearly cost the Patriots the game. Belichick has been unable to come up with a gameplan to slow down opposing passing games all year; with Nicks out and his accuracy shaky, Manning still threw for 250 yards and led two touchdown drives in the final seven minutes in Foxboro.

Brady is still the NFL’s best big-game quarterback, but he looked shaky in the win over the Ravens (two interceptions, two others called back on penalties). One of the big stories of the Super Bowl XLII upset was the relentless pressure the Giants’ front four was able to generate. The Patriots have a more versatile running game than they did in Super Bowl XLII, and they could find success on the ground against a Giants defense that’s more interested in getting upfield. The Niners did run for 150 yards on the Giants in the NFC title game. The status of TE Rob Gronkowski’s ankle injury, which the Patriots will guard like a state secret, is also something to keep an eye on going forward. Gronk had 101 receiving yards and a late TD catch (that seemed like it would be the game winner) in the teams’ first meeting.

The bottom line for New England is this: The team’s defense is far and away the weakest it’s been in the Belichick era, and New England has won exactly one game against a team with a winning record this season. That was the AFC title game, a home win over the Ravens team that outgained them (398-330), won the turnover battle (3 to 1), would have won it if not for a dropped pass in the end zone, and would have forced overtime if not for a shanked 32-yard field goal.

A year ago, the Packers once again proved that regular season performance is irrelevant once you get to January. They were the hottest team with the hottest quarterback once the playoffs started. This year, it’s the Giants who find themselves in that enviable position.

My selection on the side/total along with the props will be available next week.